There are several major forces at play in today's world. Two forces involved with the migrations of people include globalization and mass exodus from the countryside to cities. Another major force, climate change, is playing an ever greater role, affecting societies with extreme droughts, floods, and other dangers. How will future migrations be affected by this force? A new report by a team of experts including Prof. David Thomas and Prof. Stefan Dercon of Oxford University believes that the challenges associated with migrations and environmental change are underestimated. The report concludes that many will emigrate from environmentally vulnerable places, but some may be trapped, and others may actually move closer to the danger.
The report states that migration can have an impact in helping communities adapt to ever more dangerous environment. For policy makers, this may be critical in order to avoid humanitarian disasters in some the hardest hit places like the deserts of Somalia and the flood plains of Bangladesh. Other vulnerable places include low-lying coastal areas which will be impacted by sea-level rise. The authors believe that of all future migrations, 75 percent will be internal, creating burdens not just for national and international authorities, but for municipalities as well.
According to the authors, millions in poorer countries will be unable to move due to costs. As the changing environment affects their livelihoods, they will have less money to spend on moving, especially over long distances. For migrants to more favorable environments, gainful employment may lead to more remittances to low-income countries, allowing remaining individuals a better quality of life
Many individuals will be moving to cities in the future, with the hope of finding higher-paying employment. However, many cities in the developing world are failing environmentally. Many lack clean drinking water, sanitary plumbing, poor air quality, inadequate housing, and lack of access to proper nutrition. Slum cities like Lagos, Nigeria will continue to rapidly grow throughout the Asia and Africa, despite worsening environmental conditions.
According to Professor David Thomas, "Future migration issues and associations with environmental change are complex: it is not simply a story of 'climate refugees'. Rather, critical concerns include the millions who will be trapped in areas prone to growing environmental risks, especially in low-income countries, and the movement of people towards areas where climate and environmental risks are going to grow in the next 50 years. Low-lying coastal zones, and the rapidly growing cities that they support, particularly in Asia and Africa, are particular issues policy makers should focus on."
The report "Migration and Global Environmental Change" has been published by the UK's Foresight Project.
For more information:
http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight
